🌐 [translation-sync] [Tom] July 31 edits of some old and new lectures

.translate/state/ar1_turningpts.md.yml

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
-source-sha: 59c6877fa298226d160b302900d53ba6ed0f5ea2
-synced-at: "2026-07-18"
+source-sha: f3fdcbcc564961a25c77a01f5e12638e70522552
+synced-at: "2026-08-01"
 model: claude-sonnet-5
-mode: RESYNC
+mode: UPDATE
 section-count: 10
-tool-version: 0.17.0
+tool-version: 0.24.0

.translate/state/kalman_filter_var.md.yml

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
-source-sha: 1abb15f5fc0273ea02b47850f447b3c224255123
-synced-at: "2026-07-22"
-model: claude-opus-4-8
-mode: NEW
+source-sha: f3fdcbcc564961a25c77a01f5e12638e70522552
+synced-at: "2026-08-01"
+model: claude-sonnet-5
+mode: UPDATE
 section-count: 12
-tool-version: 0.20.0
+tool-version: 0.24.0

.translate/state/lq_bewley_complete_markets.md.yml

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
-source-sha: 94222f281872c1d42aad8eff12f32821041cbdef
-synced-at: "2026-07-22"
-model: claude-opus-4-8
-mode: NEW
+source-sha: f3fdcbcc564961a25c77a01f5e12638e70522552
+synced-at: "2026-08-01"
+model: claude-sonnet-5
+mode: UPDATE
 section-count: 6
-tool-version: 0.20.0
+tool-version: 0.24.0

.translate/state/lq_permanent_income.md.yml

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
-source-sha: 94222f281872c1d42aad8eff12f32821041cbdef
-synced-at: "2026-07-22"
-model: claude-opus-4-8
-mode: NEW
+source-sha: f3fdcbcc564961a25c77a01f5e12638e70522552
+synced-at: "2026-08-01"
+model: claude-sonnet-5
+mode: UPDATE
 section-count: 3
-tool-version: 0.20.0
+tool-version: 0.24.0

.translate/state/lq_robust_bewley.md.yml

@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
+source-sha: f3fdcbcc564961a25c77a01f5e12638e70522552
+synced-at: "2026-08-01"
+model: claude-sonnet-5
+mode: NEW
+section-count: 10
+tool-version: 0.24.0

.translate/state/lq_robust_smoothing.md.yml

@@ -1,6 +1,6 @@
-source-sha: cb3f056f8e966bd6fd43c8cccefa7a666d6a133c
-synced-at: "2026-07-22"
-model: claude-opus-4-8
-mode: NEW
-section-count: 4
-tool-version: 0.20.0
+source-sha: f3fdcbcc564961a25c77a01f5e12638e70522552
+synced-at: "2026-08-01"
+model: claude-sonnet-5
+mode: UPDATE
+section-count: 11
+tool-version: 0.24.0

.translate/state/sargent_surico.md.yml

@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
+source-sha: f3fdcbcc564961a25c77a01f5e12638e70522552
+synced-at: "2026-08-01"
+model: claude-sonnet-5
+mode: NEW
+section-count: 16
+tool-version: 0.24.0

.translate/state/var_subsets.md.yml

@@ -0,0 +1,6 @@
+source-sha: f3fdcbcc564961a25c77a01f5e12638e70522552
+synced-at: "2026-08-01"
+model: claude-sonnet-5
+mode: NEW
+section-count: 10
+tool-version: 0.24.0

lectures/_toc.yml

@@ -65,7 +65,8 @@ parts:
   - file: wealth_dynamics
   - file: kalman
   - file: kalman_2
-  - file: kalman_filter_var 
+  - file: kalman_filter_var
+  - file: var_subsets
   - file: organization_capital
   - file: measurement_models
 - caption: Search
@@ -116,12 +117,14 @@ parts:
   - file: lq_permanent_income
   - file: lq_bewley_complete_markets
   - file: lq_robust_smoothing
+  - file: lq_robust_bewley
   - file: lq_inventories
 - caption: Bounded Rationality in Macroeconomics
   numbered: true
   chapters:
   - file: bounded_rationality
   - file: olg_adaptive_money
+  - file: learning_approximation
   - file: exchange_rate_learning
   - file: genetic_classifier
   - file: marimon_mcgrattan_sargent
@@ -184,6 +187,7 @@ parts:
   - file: mle
   - file: unemployment_linear
   - file: unemployment_shocks
+  - file: sargent_surico
 - caption: Auctions
   numbered: true 
   chapters:

lectures/ar1_turningpts.md

@@ -460,7 +460,6 @@ $$
 
 - 将集合 $\{W_t(\omega_i)\}^{I}_{i=1}, \ \{W_{t+1}(\omega_i)\}^{I}_{i=1}, \ \dots, \ \{W_{t+N}(\omega_i)\}^{I}_{i=1}$ 视为来自预测分布 $f(W_{t+1} \mid y_t, y_{t-1}, \dots , y_0)$, $f(W_{t+2} \mid y_t, y_{t-1}, \dots , y_0)$, $\dots$, $f(W_{t+N} \mid y_t, y_{t-1}, \dots , y_0)$ 的样本。
 
-
 ## 使用模拟来近似后验分布
 
 下面的代码单元使用 `numpyro` 计算时间 $t$ 时 $\rho, \sigma$ 的后验分布。
@@ -517,7 +516,7 @@ def draw_from_posterior(data, size=10000, dis_plot=True, key=key):
     # 绘制后验分布图和轨迹图
     if dis_plot:
         plot_data = az.from_numpyro(posterior=mcmc)
-        az.plot_trace_dist(plot_data, var_names=['ρ', 'σ'])
+        az.plot_trace(plot_data, var_names=['ρ', 'σ'])
 
     return post_sample